COPING WITH MULTIBAGGERS

Just read an excellent post on the MMB of Binny, by a boarder named confucius. This post is for small cap stocks. glodyne is a mid cap, but going by its extremely low floating stock, we can apply the rule for small caps to it. So, adapting this post for glodyne, we have, as follows :

As you know, extreme corrections are all a part of the game in Small cap investing, and its something our Retail Friends should understand and not get panicked by.
Multibaggers will always move in the extremes as especially for low floating stock 60+ baggers like Glodyne.

History always repeats itself on D Street. To share with you an anology..JaiCorp corrected from Rs 1,700/ - to Rs 750/ - January 2007, a whopping 60% in 2 months. Then remained in this range for another 3 months till June 2007, before starting its dream run to Rs 18,000/ -.
Now imagine the poor retail investor who panicked, got scared, got edgy and sold in this 60% correction only to miss a 6500% appreciation coming his way. What if he had with conviction held on, bought more, scaled up, and sat tight ??? Well..there were only a handful who did that :)

To my mind...Glodyne is showing same behaviour, trend, ..and with every passing day..the story is getting even more exciting as its asset base, story, technicals, floating stock, etc..is much lower.

Its only in moments like these, that one needs to with conviction and courage get into the pit and keep buying. Big money is never made any other ways.

As I have always been advocating,Glodyne is an opportunity of a Lifetime.

PORTFOLIO IN MARCH 2011SBBJ

41690 GLODYNE @ 375

25000 GUJAPO @140

2500 ADORFON @430

2500 MBL @180

2500 KNR @110

500 SBBJ @630

500 CLARIANT @625

200 RELGOLD @1980

NET WORTH IN MARCH 2011

EQUITY + MF = 2.5 CRORES

DEBT = 50 LAKHS

RESTATE = 50 LAKHS

BULLION = 30 LAKHS

TOTAL = 3.8 CRORES

NET WORTH IN NOV 10

EQUITY+MF= 4 CRORES
DEBT = 1 CRORE
RESTATE = 50 LAKHS
BULLION = 20 LAKHS

NET WORTH=5.7 CRORES

FINANCIAL WORTH AS ON 13 JAN 2010=3.26 CRORES

EQUITY= 2.07 CR

MF'S = 29 L

DEBT = 25 L

RESTATE=50 L

BULLION= 15 L

TOTAL= 3.26 CR.

EXECUTION OF PLAN

8.5 L invested in mutual funds, for safety and monthly income.

1.5 lakh invested in Glodyne@450.

18 lakhs invested in Edelweiss arbitrage fund , to be accessed as and when required for house construction.

1.5 lakhs used to top up my OD account.

3 lakhs used to pay the balance amount for HUDA plot.

1.5 lakhs as a Monthly Income fixed deposit in HDFC bank.

1.5 lakhs marked for investment in Mutal funds.

Balance = 50000/-

DEPLOYMENT OF SALE PROCEEDS

* PAYMENT OF MONEY FOR SEC 2 PLOT= 3 LAKH

* INVESTMENT IN MIP= 10 LAKHS

*TOPPING UP OF OD ACCOUNT= 1.5 LAKHS

* BALANCE LEFT = 21.5 LAKHS.

* BIKE FOR KAVITA = 35000/-

*LCD & AC= 1.5 LAKH

*HOUSE CONSTRUCTION= 20 LAKHS

FINANCIAL TRANSACTION 8TH DECEMER 2009

8815 Glodyne sold @410. NET YIELD= 36 LAKHS APPROX.

BALANCE= 40000 GLODYNE

FINANCIAL STATUS : DECEMBER 2009

* GLODYNE 48812@410 =2 CRORES

* SBBJ 250@470 = 1.2 LAKHS

* RELGOLD 50@1750= 87500

* GUJAPOLLO 123@175=22000

TOTAL= 2C 1L 30K

My real estate portfolio ( ector 2 plot) is worth around 55 L.

My debt portfolio is worth around 25 L.

My bullion holdings are worth around 18 L.

NET WORTH= 3 C approximately.

If Glodyne appreciates to 700, as expected, then NW increases by 1.5 C to 4.5 C.

If glodyne @1000, hen NW increases by 3 C.

expected expenses :

House

Education of children.

wedding of children.

NET WORTH =3 C

STATUS OF FINANCES AS ON 3rd SEPTEMBER 2009.

Glodyne dividend of Rs. 101000 recd.

After 1:1 bonus, I now have 48478 shares of Glodyne worth 365 each

215 more shares of Glodyne purchased from dividend money.

Now I should start planning to purchase the articles in my aspiration list ( one item per month) using my credit card and then selling the required no. of glodyne shares at the appropriate moment. I can stat off by buying a laptop. I can follow the sequence given below :

1. Laptop

2. Mobile

3. Airconditioner.

4.A new LCD monitor for my PC.

5.LED/LCD TV.

6.Car.

Total cost should come to around 10 lakhs.

I need around 10 lakhs to shore up my monthly income.

I need around 20 lakhs to build the house.

So I need 40 lakhs . I have 8693 shares of Glodyne which can be sold off at around 500 to achieve my objective.

I have to proceed in a calm and calculated manner.

ASPIRATIONS

A new car ( hybrid model)

Car a/c and car audio system.

A new computer along with monitor and printer, scanner etc.

A laptop.

A new mobile with a bigger screen

Broadband internet access

LED TV

An airconditioner

A photo printer.

SOURCE OF FUNDS

SELL 5000 GLODYNE@1000 FOR GENERAL PURPOSE FUND OF 50 LAKHS. ( 2010)

SELL 5000 GLODYNE@2000 FOR EDUCATION FUND OF 1 CRORE ( 2012-2015)

SELL 2000 GLODYNE@10000 FOR WEDDING FUND OF 2 CRORES. ( 2020-2025)

SELL 1000 GLODYNE@20000 FOR RETIREMENT FUND OF 2 CRORES.(2026)

BALANCE 11230 SHARES OF GLODYNE WILL BE MY PORTFOLIO.

TARGETS AS ON 28/7/2009.

To successively double Rs. 10 lakhs , 20 times, into Rs. 1 lakh crores, in 30 years till 2040 AD.

Collect a general purpose fund of Rs. 50 lakhs, by 2010.

Collect an education fund of Rs. 1 crores by 2014 .

Collect a wedding fund of Rs. 2 crores by 2020 .

Collect a retirement fund of Rs. 2 crores by 2026 .

COMPONENTS OF WELL-BEING

Monthly cash flow

My tisco salary, kavita's salary, interest income plus dividend income provides sufficient cash flow to take care of my monthly expenses.

Cash reserve to tide over emergencies

The OD facility against the NSC's provides a cash cushion for any emergencies.

Sufficient investments to take care of future needs

5000 shares of Glodyne should be sufficient to finance the education and marriage of Anisha.

5000 shares of Glodyne should suffice for Raashi's education and wedding.

A house as per your need

4200 shares of Glodyne should be enough to finance the building of my house.

Sufficient investments to take care or retirement.

That leaves me with my fixed income investments and 10000 shares of Glodyne and 250 shares of SBBJ to take care of my retirement expenses.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS :

50 lakhs to be withdrawn from the stockmarket for building the house and financing my other aspirational needs.

2 crores to be withdrawn and kept in safe, fixed income avenues to take care of the education and wedding expenses of Raashi and Anisha.

This entire analysis does not take into consideration the hereditary benefits which might accrue to us from our parents. 

ASPIRATIONS

A new car 

A new computer along with monitor and printer, scanner etc.

A new mobile with a bigger screen

Broadband internet access

LED TV

An airconditioner

A good DVD player.

A photo printer. 

ASPIRATIONS

A new computer, along with monitor and printer.

LED tv .

One airconditioner.

PLAN

The major cash outflows over the next 15 years :

Construction of house  : current            20 lakhs

Anisha's education  : after 4 years.       25 lakhs

Raashi's education  : After 8 years       

Anisha's wedding :    After 12 years    

Raashi's wedding : After 16 years

If Glodyne appreciates to 700 as predicted , by September, then I can sell 4200 shares to realize 30 lakhs.This can be used to settle my debts and to build the house.Whatever is left can be used to shore up my monthly income.

After that my investments will be worth 25 lakhs ( debt) and around 2 crores ( equity). Whenever Glodyne appreciates to 2500, I can sell the 20000 shares I have to realize 5 crores. This amount can then be kept in a 10 yr fixed deposit or debt mutual fund to get a yield of around 10 % per annum or approximately 50 lakhs per year.So, at the end of 10 years it should be worth around 10 crores. That is when the weddings will materialize.

So, the first step will be to sell 4200 shares at 700.

The 2nd step will be to sell 20000 shares at 2500.

UPDATE

Glodyne has appreciated to around 450 ps. This makes my equity portfolio worth 1.1 crore. this plus my other assets, makes my NW 2 crores once again.

RBI bonds redeemed, PPF withdrawals also made and the proceeds used to retire the debt in my current account. 

Diamond tops bought for Rs. 10000/- for Anisha.

Now I have to start the planning process for my house in sector 2. 

1. Get the layout made.

2. Take possession of plot.

3. Get the layout passed.

4. Start the construction.

The day Glodyne reaches 500, I will set the ball rolling.

Henceforth use Kavita's salary to support my monthly expenses and to buy ornaments for Anisha/Raashi.

My earnings are 6500/- .  I need around 8000/- per month. The dividend that I receive every year to be kept in a savings account to augment my monthly income.

PPF WITHDRAWAL

rS. 80000 TRANSFERRED FROM MY PPF A/C TO HDFC  OD ACCOUNT.

RS 40000 TRANSFERRED FROM KAVITAS PPF ACCOUNT TO HDFC OD A/C.

RS 30000 MIS ACCOUNT CLOSED AND PROCEEDS TRANSFERRED TO HDFC OD A/C.

OD ACCOUNT NOW HAS 200000

BY JUNE ANOTHER 310000 WILL BE TRANSFERRED FROM RBI BONDS TO OD ACCOUNT.

FINANCIAL PLAN

I am 43 yrs old now. Assuming that I will live for another 57 years, I have to plan my life. Anisha is 13 ys old while Raashi is 8 yrs old. Assuming that both of them gat married at the age of 24 yrs

2012    Anisha goes to class XI                                                        10 lakhs.

2014   Anisha goes to college.                                                          10 lakhs

2016   Raashi goes to Class XI                                                         10 lakhs 

2018    Raashi goes to college.                                                          10 lakhs

2020   Anisha's wedding                                                                   1 crore.

2025    Raashi's wedding.                                                                  1 crore.

This adds up to 2.4 crores. Another major outgo will be when I build my house in Sector 2. Right now the cost of construction  is around Rs. 1000 per sq ft. Assuming that I will need around 2000 per sq ft of my 1400 sq ft house, it will require around 30 lakhs.  Further I will need at least 2 crores   for the living expenses of myself and Kavita after retirement. Thus if I achieve a net worth of 5 crores ( debt + equity), then I will be able to meet all my obligations.

 SO MY TARGET IS TO ACHIEVE A NET WORTH OF Rs. 5 CRORES AT LEAST.

I also remember my earlier vision :

Starting with Rs 10 lakh in 2008, to successively double it 20 times, to achieve a  portfolio value of Rs. 1 lakh crores.